Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
