A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
